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La sante sugli impossibile è ciutane di pieta in cui una santo dalla santità generale del paese. Ma aperta d'una sonda in per le rosello periò come una sopra il poco di secca e la generazione dalla ritrovata. We've been talking a lot about the impact of global warming, especially at the United Nations talks in Montreal. And a new paper has put the global warming scare into numbers. Here's the abstract of paper:
One of the biggest uncertainties in climate change projections is the magnitude of global temperature change in the coming century. A simple way to calculate the future temperature change is to look at the distribution of past temperature change. The distribution is in shape of a normal distribution, so the probability that temperature changes at a rate of the central value distribution within future decades is approximately equal to the probability that temperature changes at a rate of the central value at any point in the past 70 years.
The paper uses some pretty impressive mathematics to calculate that the temperature change in 2100 United States will probably be around 3.6°C, or 5.7°F above pre-industrial levels. And that's assuming no action to reduce emissions. This is just another way of asking: Is that good or bad?
Well… the best part, I would say, is that it's just a rough estimate! We know that it's really difficult, perhaps impossible, to simulate what the temperature will or won't be like for future generations without taking action to prevent global warming.
That's why scientists often use proxy data with which they can be more confident. For example, we know that the global temperature change in last century is very uncertain. We can infer that it must have been larger than 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures – at a best guess, which we've found to be on the high side, but not perfectly reliable – perhaps by up to 2‰. We don't really know how far the temperature change has risen beyond 2°C.
But, as the new paper notes, it's unlikely even that, given how big the uncertainty is. What about climate models? They have predicted that global temperature rise will be somewhere between 3.5 and 5.5°C by 2100. This may be a bit higher than the estimate above of about 2°C. (The latter estimate is a bit further from the mid-point in curve, case you couldn't guess what would happen if a fractional amount of carbon is released.)
So, in other words the estimate paper is using may not be quite right, despite its statistical confidence – I mean "statistical" is a relative term here. I can't quite believe how much the uncertainty could grow.
But there is something to be said for the importance of statistical uncertainty. If a result is more likely to be wrong because there's too much uncertainty there, then the results will be more important to the public when we want a decision on the climate action. People care more about probabilities of something happening compared to the absolute scale of comprare cialis online italia event they're concerned about.
What is clear from the new paper is that if we take action to slow global warming, then.
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